Key Takeaways
- Wholesale turkey prices have surged about 40% because of avian flu, but retailers are still offering deep discounts on turkeys.
- Despite the rise in turkey prices, overall Thanksgiving meal costs are expected to be 2% to 3% lower than last year, especially for shoppers who choose store brands.
This Thanksgiving, you might have to splurge a bit more on the turkey, but you can still buy the rest of your meal on a budget.
A recent analysis from the American Farm Bureau Federation, an agricultural industry group, found that wholesale turkey prices have increased about 40% from last year due to “broader economic challenges impacting the agricultural economy” and a resurgence in highly pathogenic avian influenza and avian metapneumovirus.
Although wholesale turkey prices are broadly expected to rise, analysts at Purdue University note that there’s a wide variation in turkey prices at the store, as retailers typically offer significant discounts on turkeys to get Thanksgiving shoppers in the door.
For example, shoppers at Walmart can purchase a Thanksgiving dinner bundle that serves 10 people for less than $40. Among the foods and ingredients included are dinner rolls, potatoes, fresh cranberries, and a Butterball Turkey, costing just $0.97 a pound. Kroger’s “Freshgiving Bundle” provides dinner for 10 people at less than $4.75 per person.
These prices are less than what a USDA outlook report projected. That report predicted that the cost of a frozen whole hen was going to be $131.5 cents per pound in 2025.
What This Means for You
Despite the increase in wholesale turkey prices, shoppers won’t have to blow their budget to buy Thanksgiving dinner this year. To find the best deals, try comparison shopping, choosing store brands, or buying a bundle from a major retailer like Walmart (WMT) or Kroger (KR).
To Save This Year, Buy Store Brands
For strategic shoppers, Thanksgiving may actually be cheaper this year than it was in 2024.
According to the Wells Fargo Thanksgiving Food Report, the cost of a Thanksgiving menu has fallen about 2% to 3% since last year.
“While inflation continues to impact certain categories like beef and dairy, shoppers who stick to a traditional Thanksgiving menu and shop wisely between national and store brands can unlock meaningful savings,” the report states.
While most shoppers know to opt for store or generic brands to save, the savings could be bigger this year. The report found that shoppers who opt for store-brand ingredients could expect to spend $80 this year, while those who buy name-brand foods will pay $95.
Shoppers can also find savings when purchasing certain side dishes. The cost of private brand dinner rolls has dropped 22% since last year, while the prices of stuffing, prepared gravy mix, and fresh cranberries have declined 3% to 4%.
