The government finally reopened on Wednesday, and markets are sorting out the consequences. It’s pushing mortgage rates a little bit higher.
The average interest rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage rose to 6.19% APR, according to rates provided to NerdWallet by Zillow. This is seven basis points higher than yesterday and five basis points higher than a week ago. (See our chart below for more specifics.) A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.
The government reopening is good news, right? The stock market was initially stoked, but as the effects of the shutdown become clearer, the mood’s been more subdued. Investors are stressing about something we’ve been talking about all along (just scroll down to “When will mortgage rates drop?”) — the lack of government data. The Federal Reserve meets in just a few weeks, on Dec. 9-10, and markets have been split on whether we’ll see a third consecutive rate cut.
Without official data drops, the Fed’s direction is less obvious than usual. Fed chair Jerome Powell made clear at his post-meeting conference on Oct. 29 that we shouldn’t be counting on a December cut. That doesn’t mean there won’t be one, but it does mean mortgage lenders will be less likely to adjust their rates downward in anticipation. That hesitation could keep nudging mortgage rates up.
While the economy never sleeps, markets are closed on the weekends. The rates you see Friday are unlikely to change much (if at all) until Monday.
Average mortgage rates, last 30 days
📉 When will mortgage rates drop?
Mortgage rates are constantly changing, since a major part of how rates are set depends on reactions to new inflation reports, job numbers, Fed meetings, global news… you name it. For example, even tiny changes in the bond market can shift mortgage pricing.
The federal government’s open for business, but the transition’s going to take longer than flipping a switch (or more accurately here, signing a bill). We probably won’t be seeing October’s Consumer Price Index — better known as CPI, which should have come yesterday morning — any time soon. CPI tracks changing costs, so it’s a key measure of inflation. We Nerds are super attentive to that kind of data, because when inflation’s rising, it’s more likely we’ll see the Federal Reserve raise interest rates in order to tamp it down. Slower inflation makes it safer to lower interest rates.
September’s CPI was the only federal data we saw during the shutdown, as Bureau of Labor Statistics employees were called back to work for a belated data drop on Oct. 24. But those folks were working with data that had already been collected. October could end up being skipped, and November will probably be incomplete: Normally, the BLS gathers pricing data throughout the month. With the government shut down for all of October 2025, the records might end up with an asterisk for that month.
Getting that data collection back on track will certainly firm up future outlooks, but we’ll be trying to get clarity sooner than that. The Fed’s next meeting is Dec. 9-10, and markets are divided on whether the bankers will make another cut or hold rates steady. Mortgage rates could rise if lenders start feeling extra cautious or lower if it looks like there’s a cut on the horizon.
🔁 Should I refinance?
Refinancing might make sense if today’s rates are at least 0.5 to 0.75 of a percentage point lower than your current rate (and if you plan to stay in your home long enough to break even on closing costs).
With rates where they are right now, you could start considering a refi if your current rate is around 6.69% or higher.
Also consider your goals: Are you trying to lower your monthly payment, shorten your loan term or turn home equity into cash? For example, you might be more comfortable with paying a higher rate for a cash-out refinance than you would for a rate-and-term refinance, so long as the overall costs are lower than if you kept your original mortgage and added a HELOC or home equity loan.
If you’re looking for a lower rate, use NerdWallet’s refinance calculator to estimate savings and understand how long it would take to break even on the costs of refinancing.
🏡 Should I start shopping for a home?
There is no universal “right” time to start shopping — what matters is whether you can comfortably afford a mortgage now at today’s rates.
If the answer is yes, don’t get too hung up on whether you could be missing out on lower rates later; you can refinance down the road. Focus on getting preapproved, comparing lender offers, and understanding what monthly payment works for your budget.
NerdWallet’s affordability calculator can help you estimate your potential monthly payment. If a new home isn’t in the cards right now, there are still things you can do to strengthen your buyer profile. Take this time to pay down existing debts and build your down payment savings. Not only will this free up more cash flow for a future mortgage payment, it can also get you a better interest rate when you’re ready to buy.
🔒 Should I lock my rate?
If you already have a quote you’re happy with, you should consider locking your mortgage rate, especially if your lender offers a float-down option. A float-down lets you take advantage of a better rate if the market drops during your lock period.
Rate locks protect you from increases while your loan is processed, and with the market forever bouncing around, that peace of mind can be worth it.
🤓 Nerdy Reminder: Rates can change daily, and even hourly. If you’re happy with the deal you have, it’s okay to commit.
🧐 Why is the rate I saw online different from the quote I got?
The rate you see advertised is a sample rate — usually for a borrower with perfect credit, making a big down payment, and paying for mortgage points. That won’t match every buyer’s circumstances.
In addition to market factors outside of your control, your customized quote depends on your:
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Location and property type
Even two people with similar credit scores might get different rates, depending on their overall financial profiles.
👀 If I apply now, can I get the rate I saw today?
Maybe — but even personalized rate quotes can change until you lock. That’s because lenders adjust pricing multiple times a day in response to market changes.
