Mortgage rates moved lower today, as markets parsed the implications of government employment data released yesterday.
The average interest rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage ticked down to 6.13% APR, according to rates provided to NerdWallet by Zillow. This is four basis points lower than yesterday and two basis points lower than a week ago. (See our chart below for more specifics.) A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.
Yesterday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the latest Employment Situation Summary, better known as the jobs report. The November numbers came in a little high, with the 64,000 jobs created just above economists’ predictions. That’s good news, but the bad news is that the unemployment rate came in above expectations, too.
Now markets are trying to figure out whether that bad news outweighs the good. With rates moving down a little, mortgage lenders appear to be betting on the bad news — when the labor market’s weakening, the Federal Reserve makes borrowing cheaper to encourage employers to spend and hire.
Average mortgage rates, last 30 days
📉 When will mortgage rates drop?
Mortgage rates are constantly changing, since a major part of how rates are set depends on reactions to new inflation reports, job numbers, Fed meetings, global news … you name it. For example, even tiny changes in the bond market can shift mortgage pricing.
The jobs report isn’t the only big news this week. Tomorrow, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release November’s Consumer Price Index. The rate of inflation has remained above the Fed’s target of 2% since March 2021. Though CPI isn’t the central bankers’ inflation measure of choice, this report will provide a recent snapshot of household spending and the effect of inflation on day-to-day expenses. If inflation’s running extra hot — like hot enough to outweigh the cooling labor market — that could push mortgage rates up. Restricting borrowing through higher rates is the Fed’s key tool for reining in inflation.
Right now, the outlook’s still murky for the Federal Reserve’s next meeting, which will be Jan. 27-28, 2026. By that time, December’s data will have been released, too. Markets are split on whether the central bankers will cut again or maintain the current rate. If it looks like the Federal Reserve’s going for another rate cut, mortgage rates are likely to go down. But if it looks like the Fed will maintain current levels — or even raise rates — mortgage rates could head upward in anticipation.
🔁 Should I refinance?
Refinancing might make sense if today’s rates are at least 0.5 to 0.75 of a percentage point lower than your current rate (and if you plan to stay in your home long enough to break even on closing costs).
With rates where they are right now, you could start considering a refi if your current rate is around 6.63% or higher.
Also consider your goals: Are you trying to lower your monthly payment, shorten your loan term or turn home equity into cash? For example, you might be more comfortable with paying a higher rate for a cash-out refinance than you would for a rate-and-term refinance, so long as the overall costs are lower than if you kept your original mortgage and added a HELOC or home equity loan.
If you’re looking for a lower rate, use NerdWallet’s refinance calculator to estimate savings and understand how long it would take to break even on the costs of refinancing.
There is no universal “right” time to start shopping — what matters is whether you can comfortably afford a mortgage now at today’s rates.
If the answer is yes, don’t get too hung up on whether you could be missing out on lower rates later; you can refinance down the road. Focus on getting preapproved, comparing lender offers, and understanding what monthly payment works for your budget.
NerdWallet’s affordability calculator can help you estimate your potential monthly payment. If a new home isn’t in the cards right now, there are still things you can do to strengthen your buyer profile. Take this time to pay down existing debts and build your down payment savings. Not only will this free up more cash flow for a future mortgage payment, it can also get you a better interest rate when you’re ready to buy.
🔒 Should I lock my rate?
If you already have a quote you’re happy with, you should consider locking your mortgage rate, especially if your lender offers a float-down option. A float-down lets you take advantage of a better rate if the market drops during your lock period.
Rate locks protect you from increases while your loan is processed, and with the market forever bouncing around, that peace of mind can be worth it.
🤓 Nerdy Reminder: Rates can change daily, and even hourly. If you’re happy with the deal you have, it’s okay to commit.
🧐 Why is the rate I saw online different from the quote I got?
The rate you see advertised is a sample rate — usually for a borrower with perfect credit, making a big down payment, and paying for mortgage points. That won’t match every buyer’s circumstances.
In addition to market factors outside of your control, your customized quote depends on your:
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Location and property type
Even two people with similar credit scores might get different rates, depending on their overall financial profiles.
👀 If I apply now, can I get the rate I saw today?
Maybe — but even personalized rate quotes can change until you lock. That’s because lenders adjust pricing multiple times a day in response to market changes.
