Mortgage rates have had an uneventful couple of days as, like the rest of us, bond markets and mortgage lenders are waiting to see if the government will reopen this week.
The average interest rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage rose to 6.17% APR, according to rates provided to NerdWallet by Zillow. This is one basis point higher than Monday and nine basis points higher than a week ago. (See our chart below for more specifics.) A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.
A government reopening would be a major market-moving event and good news for basically everyone except bond markets — and maybe home buyers and refinancers. A bit of stock market exuberance will send investors from bonds to stocks, as they feel less need to play it safe. When bonds go down, mortgage rates usually go up.
Average mortgage rates, last 30 days
📉 When will mortgage rates drop?
Mortgage rates are constantly changing, since a major part of how rates are set depends on reactions to new inflation reports, job numbers, Fed meetings, global news… you name it. For example, even tiny changes in the bond market can shift mortgage pricing.
It’s finally looking like the federal government could reopen. That’s huge, given how much disruption and difficulty the shutdown has caused for increasingly large segments of the American public.
For us Nerds trying to figure out where mortgage rates will go, the resumption of data collection and distribution from federal agencies would be the headline news. (We said we’re Nerds!) Without that data, we — along with economists, market watchers and the Federal Reserve — have been doing our best with numbers from private sources. These understudies have done an amazing job, but let’s face it. We want to see the stars.
Even if the government were to reopen today, it’s highly unlikely that we’d get what would have been this week’s marquee report: October’s Consumer Price Index, or CPI, which is theoretically set to come tomorrow. CPI tracks changing costs, so it’s a key measure of inflation. When inflation’s rising, it’s more likely we’ll see the Federal Reserve raise interest rates in order to tamp it down. Slower inflation makes it safer to lower interest rates.
September’s CPI has been the only federal data we’ve seen during the shutdown, as Bureau of Labor Statistics employees were called back to work for a belated data drop on Oct. 24. But those folks were working with data that had already been collected. October could end up being skipped, and November may be incomplete: Normally, the BLS gathers pricing data throughout the month. With the government shut down for all of October 2025, the records might end up with an asterisk for that month.
Getting that data collection back on track will certainly firm up future outlooks, but we’ll be trying to get clarity sooner than that. The Fed’s next meeting is Dec. 9-10, and right now markets are split on whether the bankers will make another cut or hold rates steady. Mortgage rates could rise if lenders start feeling extra cautious or lower if it looks like there’s a cut on the horizon.
🔁 Should I refinance?
Refinancing might make sense if today’s rates are at least 0.5 to 0.75 of a percentage point lower than your current rate (and if you plan to stay in your home long enough to break even on closing costs).
With rates where they are right now, you could start considering a refi if your current rate is around 6.67% or higher.
Also consider your goals: Are you trying to lower your monthly payment, shorten your loan term or turn home equity into cash? For example, you might be more comfortable with paying a higher rate for a cash-out refinance than you would for a rate-and-term refinance, so long as the overall costs are lower than if you kept your original mortgage and added a HELOC or home equity loan.
If you’re looking for a lower rate, use NerdWallet’s refinance calculator to estimate savings and understand how long it would take to break even on the costs of refinancing.
🏡 Should I start shopping for a home?
There is no universal “right” time to start shopping — what matters is whether you can comfortably afford a mortgage now at today’s rates.
If the answer is yes, don’t get too hung up on whether you could be missing out on lower rates later; you can refinance down the road. Focus on getting preapproved, comparing lender offers, and understanding what monthly payment works for your budget.
NerdWallet’s affordability calculator can help you estimate your potential monthly payment. If a new home isn’t in the cards right now, there are still things you can do to strengthen your buyer profile. Take this time to pay down existing debts and build your down payment savings. Not only will this free up more cash flow for a future mortgage payment, it can also get you a better interest rate when you’re ready to buy.
🔒 Should I lock my rate?
If you already have a quote you’re happy with, you should consider locking your mortgage rate, especially if your lender offers a float-down option. A float-down lets you take advantage of a better rate if the market drops during your lock period.
Rate locks protect you from increases while your loan is processed, and with the market forever bouncing around, that peace of mind can be worth it.
🤓 Nerdy Reminder: Rates can change daily, and even hourly. If you’re happy with the deal you have, it’s okay to commit.
🧐 Why is the rate I saw online different from the quote I got?
The rate you see advertised is a sample rate — usually for a borrower with perfect credit, making a big down payment, and paying for mortgage points. That won’t match every buyer’s circumstances.
In addition to market factors outside of your control, your customized quote depends on your:
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Location and property type
Even two people with similar credit scores might get different rates, depending on their overall financial profiles.
👀 If I apply now, can I get the rate I saw today?
Maybe — but even personalized rate quotes can change until you lock. That’s because lenders adjust pricing multiple times a day in response to market changes.
