In most incapacity insurance coverage packages, beneficiaries lose some or all of their advantages in the event that they earn above an earnings threshold. Whereas meant to display out candidates with excessive remaining working capability, earnings limits also can distort the labor provide of beneficiaries. We develop a easy framework to judge this trade-off.
We use a discount within the earnings restrict in Hungary to look at screening and labor provide responses and analyze administrative panel knowledge that brings collectively info on earnings, occupations, profit receipt, healthcare spending, and different domains for half of the Hungarian inhabitants over the 2003-2017 interval.
To review how the reform impacted the collection of beneficiaries into the Common Social Help (RSA) program and their labor provide conditional on participation, we evaluate beneficiaries who entered in 2007, the 12 months earlier than the reform (“outdated entrants”), and beneficiaries who entered in 2008, the 12 months after the reform (“new entrants”). We comply with these two teams of beneficiaries for 4 years earlier than and three years after they enter incapacity insurance coverage. We begin our empirical evaluation by evaluating choice into the RSA program between outdated and new entrants. Specifically, we evaluate program influx, noticed traits of entrants and their labor market outcomes within the years earlier than entry. This evaluation ought to give us a very good sense of the general choice impact because of the reform. Subsequent, we evaluate labor market outcomes of outdated and new entrants after incapacity entry. To interpret these variations as labor provide results from the change within the earnings restrict, now we have to regulate for the choice results, which we do in regression and reweighting analyses.
We discover that the coverage modified choice into this system modestly however diminished labor provide considerably. Considered by the lens of our mannequin, these findings recommend that the earnings threshold might be greater.
A limitation of our evaluation lies in its comparability with different incapacity packages, on condition that the Hungarian RSA program affords a really low, flat-rate profit particularly designed for reasonably disabled people. Nevertheless, our outcomes result in a basic conclusion that the low earnings restrict discourages beneficiaries from absolutely using their remaining working capability.
The paper discovered that:
- The lower within the earnings restrict had a small affect on choice into this system. First, we don’t discover proof of decreased program entry charges. Second, in keeping with the screening mechanism, we present that people who entered this system after the reform (new entrants) had worse pre-entry labor market outcomes than beneficiaries who had entered earlier (outdated entrants). Although new entrants have been barely much less prone to work and earned considerably much less on common pre-entry than outdated entrants, outdated and new entrants have been related on quite a lot of dimensions, resembling age, occupation, geographical location, and sick depart use previous to getting into incapacity.
- People who entered this system after the earnings restrict was diminished had meaningfully decrease labor provide post-entry. New entrants have been as prone to be employed as outdated entrants, however conditional on being employed, they labored much less. On common, new entrants labored 7 p.c fewer hours, and had 18 p.c decrease earnings (conditional on working) after taking on advantages.
- This result’s pushed by the beneficiaries with greater pre-disability earnings, who have been most affected by the change within the earnings restrict.
The coverage implications of the findings are:
- We present conceptually that with the selection of the earnings restrict, policymakers should commerce off choice and labor provide results.
- Our outcomes recommend that lowering the earnings restrict solely led to a average enchancment in screening effectivity. This proof is in keeping with a state of affairs the place the earnings restrict and profit degree earlier than the reform have been already sufficiently low to discourage potential entrants who’re well-positioned to seek out higher-paying jobs within the labor market.
- On the similar time, the reform considerably distorted the labor provide of program members, indicating that people with average disabilities react sensitively to the monetary incentives embedded in incapacity advantages.
- Too-strict earnings limits fail to yield sizable price financial savings from profit expenditures for the federal government however depart reasonably disabled people with decrease earnings, leading to decrease tax revenues.