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I have no idea why this retains popping up. It mainly goes like this:
Take the newest piece of historical past, right here current is a perhaps 1 / 4 of the attribute time scale of something, say the economic system, expertise, inhabitants, … and proceed to extrapolate it into the far future.

The explanation this by no means works is that every part has a pure restrict set by the system. The extrapolation is all the time finished at a degree the place the factor being extrapolated is only a minor participant of insignificant however barely noticeable worth. Just like the area rocket launches of the Nineteen Sixties that had been projected into the Jetsons. Nuclear energy too low cost to meter. Microprocessors growing superhuman intelligence, and so forth. The present fascination is with the financial growth of the BRIC nations. It say that is simply not going to occur to the extent it’s being extrapolated.

In some unspecified time in the future in not too a few years (10), BRIC can have grown to turn out to be such a big participant that they may meet the identical boundaries which can be retaining different gamers just like the US, Japan, and Europa from rising their towers into the sky. Because the sum whole is restricted by planetary constraints, what is definitely going to occur is that the economic system share of the latter will switch in a slight trend to the previous.

The one option to develop exponentially is to find virgin territory, and this truly doesn’t final lengthy given the geometric character of exponential progress.


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Initially posted 2009-08-11 14:33:00.

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