Summary 

Within the three a long time from 1980 to 2010, there was a gradual rise within the variety of males receiving Social Safety Incapacity Insurance coverage (DI) advantages.  The variety of beneficiaries peaked in 2012 and has declined considerably because the finish of the Nice Recession, monitoring very intently the (pre-pandemic) fall within the nationwide unemployment fee and enchancment in different labor-market fundamentals.  Though common inhabitants getting older and the enterprise cycle have had clear results on the variety of recipients, one issue that has gone comparatively understudied is the getting older of the previously incarcerated inhabitants.  This paper examines the connection between previous incarceration and later-life DI and SSI receipt, in addition to poverty standing.  To isolate causal results independently from different elements, this evaluation makes use of detailed micro-data from three nationally consultant surveys—the Well being and Retirement Examine (HRS), Nationwide Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 Cohort (NLSY79) and the American Neighborhood Survey (ACS)—and a novel econometric identification technique.  The technique depends on the timing of the entry of crack cocaine within the Eighties that differed throughout areas (states) to kind an instrumental variable for the probability of incarceration. 

The paper discovered that: 

  • Previous incarceration reduces the profession years of employment, normally, and the probability of assembly the DI period check, specifically, decreasing eligibility for DI. 
  • Given the seemingly discount in eligibility, nonetheless, previous incarceration results in a 30-percentage-point enhance within the probability of making use of for DI or SSI advantages, with an 18-percentage-point enhance within the probability of profit receipt. 
  • Previous incarceration raises by about 20 proportion factors the probability the person is in poverty as measured by the federal poverty threshold. 

The coverage implications of the findings are: 

  • On the mixture degree, DI rolls are about 300,000 greater for 50-61-year-old males due to previous incarceration; SSI rolls are about 50,000 greater. 
  • Incarceration has resulted in about 375,000 extra males between 50 and 61 years of age being below the federal poverty threshold within the 2010-2016 interval. 
  • These outcomes suggest that the decline in mixture DI receipt since 2012 was partially blunted by the decline in incarceration then and the ensuing rise within the variety of ex-prisoners within the civilian inhabitants. 

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