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This is not a forecast or a prediction. It’s policy. The short-term rental (STR) markets will absolutely boom in 2026 and 2027!
Why the momentum shift? The One Big Beautiful Bill Act was passed in July. Tax code changes enable businesses to write off 100% of the purchase price of eligible assets—mainly in the form of heavy machinery or equipment, cars, jets, or yachts—used for business purposes.
At the center for real estate investors is the STR loophole, a provision allowing short-term rental owners to treat depreciation losses as active, not passive. That means those paper losses can offset W-2 income, especially for high earners.
Why do I say “especially”? Because tax incentives are not a reason to invest in real estate, but a good one, with incentives proportional to savings. Generally, a W-2 wage earner has very limited write-offs, with STR bonus depreciation, a sufficient (qualified) investment can potentially offset all taxable income.
Understanding the STR Loophole
The IRS allows real estate investors to depreciate property over time, but typically, those losses can only offset passive income. However, when a property qualifies as a short-term rental (average stay under seven days, with material participation), its losses can offset active income.
Combine that with bonus depreciation—the ability to write off a large portion of a property’s components in the first year through cost segregation—and investors can effectively offset the down payment and investment cost.
Here’s an optimized example:
- A physician earning $600K per year has a tax rate of 35%, equating to $210K in taxes.
- The investor purchases a $1M STR property with 20% down ($200K), with $600K in depreciable assets.
- The investor still has to put the money down and still has the mortgage and associated obligations (ideally covered by rental income), but is effectively able to swap paying the tax bill for a real estate asset.
Tax perks alone aren’t a reason to invest, but they make a good investment even better.
How to Prepare Early
- Cost segregation plans: Don’t wait until tax season. Begin depreciation planning before you close on properties. Communicate with your CPA.
- Invest in high-basis properties: Newer or fully renovated assets maximize depreciable value.
- Confirm loophole qualification: Even if the property is advertised as “STR eligible,” reverify directly with the municipality before contract and during the contingency period to ensure active participation thresholds can be met on time (100+ hours). For example, properties in an area with an STR wait list might not allow enough time to launch and operate.
- Model ROI, including tax savings: Calculate your “after-tax yield,” not just cash flow.
- Work with STR-specific brokers, lenders, and CPAs: STR-specialized brokers will save time and heartache. Financing and accounting expertise can multiply your leverage.
Markets likely to outperform include:
- Coastal STRs with consistent travel demand (PNW Coast, Florida, Carolinas)
- Lifestyle luxury (mountain and resort destinations catering to affluent travelers)
- Second home destinations, such as prime active rentals, or anywhere a licensed, zoned STR can legally be operated
What to Expect Going Forward
2026–2027 marks a shift from speculation to strategy—where tax literacy and financial engineering matter as much as design and guest experience.
Here’s what to expect:
- Rapid offer requirements for the most successful and turnkey STR properties.
- Potential for multi-offer scenarios in strong STR markets.
- STR sellers and STR broker/agents to strategically price their listings.
- Investor momentum to consistently accelerate from spring through fall.
For high earners, the combination of depreciation, equity growth, and stable demand still makes STRs one of the most powerful real estate investment vehicles available in the next two years, and provides the opportunity for STR investors to accelerate their portfolio timeline.
Combined with anticipated lower borrowing costs, market conditions are primed for strong short-term rental investment demand in both 2026 and 2027.
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